Automation and the Future of Work

Looking at the first industrial revolution in Britain in the 19th century and seeing how people reacted to massive change was a real eye-opener.

看着19世纪英国第一次工业革命时人们对巨大变革的反应真是大开眼界。

Yes. It was interesting to hear how people felt about automation then and what challenges they faced. I didn't know that first started with workers in the textile industry.

年轻女子：是的。听到人们当时对自动化的感受和他们面临的挑战很有趣。我不知道最初是从纺织行业的工人开始的。

With those protesting workers called the Luddites destroying their knitting machines because they were so worried about losing their jobs.

年轻男子：那些抗议的工人被称为卢德派，他们摧毁他们的织机，因为他们非常担心失去工作。

Yes, and ultimately, they didn't achieve anything. And anyway, industrialisation created more jobs than it destroyed.

年轻女子：是的，最终他们没有取得任何成果。而且，工业化创造了比它摧毁的工作更多。

Yes, that's true – but it probably didn't seem a positive thing at the time. I can see why the Luddites felt so threatened.

年轻男子：是的，那是真的——但在当时可能并没有显得如此积极。我能理解为什么卢德派会感到如此受到威胁。

I know. I'm sure I would have felt the same. The discussion about the future of work was really optimistic for a change.

年轻女子：我知道。我确定我会有同样的感受。对于一次变得如此乐观的关于未来工作的讨论来说真是令人耳目一新。

I like the idea that work won't involve doing boring, repetitive tasks, as robots will do all that. Normally, you only hear negative stuff about the future.

我喜欢这样的想法，即工作将不再涉及无聊、重复的任务，因为机器人将会承担这些任务。通常你只听到有关未来的负面信息。

Bit too optimistic, don't you think? For example, I can't see how people are about to have more leisure time, when all the evidence shows people are spending longer than ever at work.

年轻男子：有点太乐观了，你不觉得吗？例如，我看不出人们如何会有更多的休闲时间，因为所有的证据都表明人们的工作时间比以往任何时候都要长。

No – that's true. And what about lower unemployment? I'm not so sure about that.

年轻女子：是的——这是真的。还有降低失业率呢？对此我不太确定。

Perhaps in the long term – but not in the foreseeable future.

年轻男子：也许从长远来看——但在可预见的未来不会发生。

Mmm. And I expect most people will be expected to work until they're much older – as everyone's living much longer.

年轻女子：嗯，我预计大多数人会被期望工作到年纪很大——因为每个人的寿命都变长了。

That's already happening.

年轻男子：这已经开始发生了。

I enjoyed all that stuff on how technology has changed some jobs and how they're likely to change in the near future.

年轻女子：我喜欢关于技术如何改变了一些工作并在不久的将来如何改变的那些内容。

Yeah, incredible. Like accountants. You might think all the technological innovations would have put them out of a job, but in fact there are more of them than ever. They're still really in demand and have become far more efficient.

年轻男子：是的，令人难以置信。比如会计师。你可能会认为所有的技术创新都会让他们失业，但实际上他们比以往任何时候都更多。他们仍然非常受欢迎，并且变得更加高效。

Right. That was amazing. Twenty times more accountants in this country compared to the 19th century.

年轻女子：没错。真是令人惊讶。与19世纪相比，这个国家的会计师多了二十倍。

I know. I'd never have thought that demand for hairdressing would have gone up so much in the last hundred years. One hairdresser for every 287 people now, compared to one for over 1,500.

年轻男子：我知道。我从来没有想到在过去一百年里，理发需求会增加这么多。现在每287人有一个理发师，而过去则是每1500多人才有一个。

Yeah because people's earning power has gone up so they can afford to spend more on personal services like that.

年轻女子：是的，因为人们的收入增加了，所以他们可以在个人服务上花更多钱。

But technology hasn't changed the actual job that much.

年轻男子：但技术对实际工作的影响并不是很大。

No, they've got hairdryers, etc. but it's one job where you don't depend on a computer …

年轻女子：是的，他们有了吹风机等设备，但这是一项不太依赖计算机的工作……

The kind of work that administrative staff do has changed enormously, thanks to technology. Even 20 years ago there were secretaries doing dictation and typing.

行政人员所做的工作已经发生了巨大变化，这要归功于技术。即使20年前还有做口述和打字的秘书。

Yes. Really boring compared to these days, when they're given much more responsibility and higher status.

年轻男子：是的。与现在相比，那真的很无聊，如今他们担负着更多责任，地位也更高。

Mmm. A lot of graduates go in for this kind of work now … I'd expected there to be a much bigger change in the number of agricultural workers in the 19th century.

年轻女子：嗯。现在很多毕业生从事这类工作……我原以为19世纪的农业劳动者数量会有更大的变化。

But the 1871 census showed that roughly 25% of the population worked on the land.

但是1871年的人口普查显示，大约有25%的人口在农田劳动。

Yeah, I'd have assumed it would be more than 50%. Now it's less than 0.2%.

年轻男子：是的，我本以为这个比例会超过50%。现在，这个比例不到0.2%。

What about care workers?

年轻女子：护理工作者呢？

They barely existed in the 19th century as people's lifespan was so much shorter. But now of course this sector will see huge growth.

年轻男子：在19世纪，他们几乎不存在，因为人们的寿命要短得多。但现在当然这个行业将会出现巨大增长。

Yeah – and it's hard enough to meet current demand. The future looks quite bleak for bank clerks. They've been in decline since ATMs were introduced in the eighties.

年轻女子：是的——而且满足当前需求已经很困难了。对于银行职员来说，未来看起来相当不乐观。自从80年代引入自动取款机以来，他们一直在下降。

And technology will certainly make most of the jobs they do now redundant, I think.。

年轻男子：而且技术肯定会使他们现在做的大部分工作变得多余，我想。

I agree, although the situation may change. It's very hard to predict what will happen.

年轻女子：我同意，尽管情况可能会发生变化。预测未来会发生什么是非常困难的。